NJ Chamber's Election Forum 2020: A Breakdown of Trump vs. Biden, and What’s on the Line for New Jersey

The Garden State’s Most Seasoned News Reporters Break Down the Issues and the Consequences

Every four years, the N.J. Chamber of Commerce hosts a forum that previews the presidential election. This year, we presented a panel of news reporters, some of whom have covered politics for decades, to discuss the issues and the consequences of the 2020 elections – and the impact they will have on New Jersey.

The Forum – held on Oct. 23, the day after the final debate between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump – was moderated by NJ Spotlight News’s Chief Political Correspondent Michael Aron.

The Race: Biden Is Ahead in the Polls, But Should We Trust the Polls?

“It still seems that Biden is ahead in the polls in the swing states although Trump has gained ground in Florida and Pennsylvania,” said Colleen O’Dea, of NJ Spotlight News. “Can Trump turn things around? I think so. I am not making any predictions at this point.”

“The polls do not make me think Biden is going to run away with it,” said Stacie Sherman of Bloomberg. “Polls represent sentiment and elections depend on action. People can say ‘I hate Trump’ or ‘I hate Biden,’ but do they vote?”

Biden was Sharp in the Debates

Regardless of who you think won the second debate, Charlie Stile, of The Record/USA Today Network, said Biden succeeded in dispelling Trump’s characterization of him as “Senile Joe” or “Sleepy Joe.”

“It was the sharpest I’ve seen Biden since the elections began,” Stile said. “He put Trump on the defensive and he had good attack lines.”

Trump Draws Big Crowds at His Rallies

Michael Aron noted the difference in the size of the political rallies that the two candidates are holding. “People line up out the door for Trump rallies and Biden has 30 cars at a drive-in,” Aron said. “There is so much more enthusiasm for Trump than there is for Biden. Should I believe my eyes or does it make a difference?”

There is an explanation for that, said Jonathan Salant of The Star-Ledger/NJ Advance Media. “Most of the people voting for Trump are voting for Trump and most of the people voting for Biden are voting against Trump,” he said.

There is Much on the Line for New Jersey

Salant outlined some of the election issues that directly affect the Garden State:

• Off-shore Drilling: Trump said he would approve offshore oil and gas drilling. Biden said he would ban it.
• Gateway Tunnel: Trump has said he’d sooner shut down the government than let Congress allocate money to a new train tunnel under the Hudson River. Biden, who lives on Amtrak, is more likely to fund the project, Salant said.
• Immigration: Trump revoked Obama’s executive order letting so-called ‘dreamers ’ - unauthorized immigrants brought to the U.S. as children - remain in the U.S. Biden has proposed letting the dreamers remain in the country.

There are other issues that separate the candidates, such as automobile mileage standards, air quality and Obamacare, Salant added.

Next Year’s Gubernatorial Election

The reporters also gave an early preview of New Jersey’s 2021 gubernatorial election.

For now, all eyes are on Gov. Murphy and how he is dealing with the pandemic, Sherman said. “He is rating well in job approval polls,” she said. “But a year is a long way away. Will kids still be home from school and will people still be out of work? That could hurt Gov. Murphy.”

Also complicating matters are New Jersey’s financial struggles, Sherman added. “How will Murphy navigate the economy and the fiscal mess?” she asked. “Will taxes go up? That would not over well in a state that already feels overtaxed.”

And when will the economy fully reopen?

“Businesses are really struggling because of COVID and closures, and restaurants can seat people at only one of every four indoor tables,” O’Dea said. “How do they survive? Businesses have been asking for more of the state’s (share of the federal) CARES Act relief funds. The governor has dribbled some of that money out in pieces, and that has not been very helpful in terms of allowing businesses to keep going.”

The specter of President Trump Will Weigh Heavily on New Jersey’s Gubernatorial Race

Whoever runs for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in New Jersey will at least partly be evaluated on their attitude towards President Trump, Stile said.

Republican Jack Ciattarelli, the former assemblyman from Raritan, is a declared candidate with a complicated relationship with Trump “which I think is going to be a big issue going forward,” Stile said.

State Assembly Republican Leader Jon Bramnick has established himself as anti-Trump, and “is positioning himself as an independent-minded, pragmatic guy, but I don’t think he has an appetite” for a prolonged election battle, Stile said.

Also mulling a run is Doug Steinhardt, the state Republican chairman who is all-in on Trump and helped lead a failed lawsuit to overthrow the state's lock down executive order.

“It will be an interesting field,” Stile said.

Like most everything these days, the Republican nominee’s chances may come down to Trump, Stile added. “If Trump loses, he is less of a radioactive figure (for the Republican candidates in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race),” he said. “But if this is a Trump victory, I think it will be hard for the Republicans. It will be a major slog either way.”

 A special thank you to our sponsors: JCP&L, PSEG, Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of NJ, Withum and Choose: New Jersey.

The Panel