Exclusive briefing for Cornerstone NJ members
How’s the national economy? It’s complicated. So said Curtis Dubay, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who delivered an exclusive briefing to New Jersey Chamber of Commerce's Cornerstone members Jan. 29.
“Consumers are sour on the economy – mostly due to higher prices – but they continue to spend more than expected,” Dubay said during the virtual event.
The resilient spending fueled solid growth in the economy in the second and third quarters of 2025, he said.
One reason for the disconnect, Dubay said, is the impact of tariffs and broader economic turbulence last year. As 2025 progressed, more businesses began passing tariff-related costs on to consumers, contributing to rising prices and a growing sense of unease.
Tariffs, Dubay explained, are pushing up the cost of necessities such as food, electricity, transportation and housing – categories that now account for a larger share of household spending. Consumers are devoting more of their income to essentials, leaving less room for discretionary purchases, Dubay said.
Looking ahead, Dubay projected “status quo” economic growth of 2% to 2.5% in 2026, assuming consumers continue to spend and businesses maintain investment levels – particularly in artificial intelligence.
(Cornerstone New Jersey is an exclusive membership level of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce. For more information, click here.)